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Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hu Jintao (Asia News)

24 September 2008

Tehran and Beijing are making every effort to raise the level of their trade exchanges to $200 billion, the Iranian commerce minister announced here on Wednesday.

“For this purpose, the two sides must try to boost bilateral relations in the fields of energy, non-oil products, and engineering and technical services,” said Masud Mirkazemi.

Developing economic and trade relations between the permanent members of the SCO is one of the main objectives of the meeting, said Mirkazemi, who is visiting China to attend the first commerce ministers meeting of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

According to IRNA, he stated that Iran should shortly join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

He expressed hope that the SCO meeting in addition to the trade and commercial ties will focus on non-economic cooperation too.

During his two-day visit to China, the Iranian commerce minister is due to hold talks with his Chinese counterpart Chen Deming on expansion of commercial cooperation.

Iran as well as Pakistan, India, and Mongolia, have observer status in SCO.

SCO is an intergovernmental economic organization which was founded in 2001 by the leaders of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan who make up the body’s permanent members.

The Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming said that the sanctions against Iran have placed no limitation on Tehran-Beijing trade.

The sides’ trade value in 2007 showed a 42 percent growth over the figure of its previous year, reaching $20 billion.

The countries had over $17 billion worth of transaction in the first 7 months of 2008 which indicates 52 percent rise.

The members of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) unequivocally supported Russia’s war against Georgia when they met last month in Dushanbe, Tajikistan for the eighth annual meeting.

Saakshvili’’s folly has enhanced Russia’s image in the east and has caused slight tremors in the west. It was Russia’s first all out war against a nation since the break-up of former USSR.

Many claimed that it was a revival of cold war.

America’s Rose Revolution succeeded in bringing Saakshvili, the wily politician best known for his outspoken hatred towards Russia. In its bid to secure a safe haven for its central Asian plans America committed yet another blunder.

The outcome of war was a stronger and confident Russia and two new independent nations duly recognized by Russia.

SCO supported Russia’s recognition of break-away regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

The war cost Georgia its two important regions and further isolation. In its bid to become a member of NATO it readily became a scapegoat of America’s futile plans.

The six members of SCO namely China, Russia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan have shown enough unity to repel any of America’s intentions in the central Asia.

Iran, India, Pakistan and Mongolia are the observer states of SCO and were given more importance this time especially Iran.

The regions associated with SCO are the home of world’s maximum share of energy resources. Resurgent Russia is less willing to accommodate any of America’s plans in this region.

SCO is clearly aiming to neutralize NATO and stall its further expansion into their sphere of influence.

In my last post, I explained what the Shanghai Cooperation Organization was and discussed the organization’s self-defined purpose. This post will examine the relationship between SCO and NATO in greater depth.

The potential impact of the CO based on the sheer magnitude of its size and population pales in comparison to the power of certain SCO comments and actions since its inception. These actions have triggered concern, doubt, and caution in the Western World.

The tenor of this somewhat rocky relationship began shortly after September 11, 2001. Initially, China and Russia granted admission of US troops into Central Asia in support of the military’s search for Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan. However, since then, the SCO has urged the US-led NATO coalition in Afghanistan to set a timetable for withdrawal. Some sources trace this pressure back to statements by Russian and Chinese foreign policy analysts revealing that both nations assume the US has aspirations to get involved in what Russia and China consider to be their sphere of influence. Chinese analysts have been arguing for some time that the presence of US troops in Central Asia serves a dual-strategic purpose that extends beyond its pursuit of radical Muslim targets.

If the Chinese and Russian governments feel threatened by the US military presence along their borders, it is likely that they view the SCO as a way to offset that pressure.

Second, in a 2001 SCO Declaration and again in a 2005 bilateral China-Russia declaration, it was reemphasized that the group depends on the entire international community to create a “mutual respect of sovereignty, territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression and non-interference.” While not directly accusing the US or NATO, it was clear that the signatories of the declarations were sending a warning to the coalition in Afghanistan, a nation within the SCO’s sphere of influence. Furthermore, the declaration condemned the search as a quest for world hegemony and monopoly, yet again aimed at the US and NATO.

Third, Iran is seeking admission into the SCO. It currently holds observer status. Should the SCO grant Iran the rights of a permanent member, it would signal that Russia and China side with Iran on the nuclear proliferation issue, something that NATO would not be pleased to hear. If the SCO embraces Iran, therelationship between NATO members and the SCO could get icy or, even worse, hot.

Finally, Chinese and Russian troops participated in a joint demonstration they named “Peace Mission 2005.” All other permanent members and observer states were invited to watch the maneuvers. The demonstration included nearly 10,000 troops, hundreds of advanced aircraft (which included some of Russia’s most effective weaponry), and units from every arm of the Russian and Chinese militaries. The stated purpose of the exercise was to ensure that the troops were adequately prepared and trained. But many Western observers of international affairs saw this action as a quiet way to flex the SCO’s military muscle.

Together, these events make up one nasty cocktail. However, in my next post, I’ll explore the alternative case: that the SCO (led by China and Russia) has no aspirations to counterbalance NATO at all, and has a unique set of independent goals and objectives.

When Rachel Yould and I first began discussing the NATO project in late fall of 2007, it seemed like a dated and uninspiring focus area to critics more interested in the struggle against terrorism or the rise of developing world economic powers. Although we thought the project had a lot of potential to begin with, I never would have guessed that NATO would be featured this prominently in media discourse, or cropped up in an interview with a vice presidential candidate from Alaska shortly after the other vice presidential candidate (to-be) was sent to a prospective NATO member state, Georgia.

Kosovar independence (providing the opportunity for a retrospective on NATO action in the Balkans) seemed likely to be a major NATO issue in the fall of 2007, and that prediction has been born out.

There has been a bizarre pause in dialogue about NATO's most significant military commitment, the 53,000 ISAF troops stationed in Afghanistan. This troop commitment is not only significant because of its duration and size, but also because it is NATO's first troop commitment outside of North America and Europe, and first significant counter-insurgency project. Although this commitment has been an ongoing source of tension in the alliance-- US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates has called for a greater NATO troop commitment while European partners want to decrease their troop presence--this debate seems to have been temporarily tabled due to concern about Georgia.

Another original area of interest for our team was NATO's invovlement with its more southeastern former Soviet sallelite Partnership for Peace members, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan and NATO have recently began conducting joint military exercises. Although Kazakhstan has a close military relationship with Russia, it seeks to become the first Central Asian state with NATO interoperability. Despite its long borders and strong ties with neighboring Russia and China, this landlocked country has continued to build a stronger relationship with NATO. Rachel Aunspaugh has began to shed some light on the complex geopolitical situation the Central Asian countries find themselves in in her series of posts on the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

Although Kazakhstan, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan and Ubekistan's dual membership in NATO and the SCO may be a source of tension in the future, for now, the fact that these states are strengthening ties with both organziations complicates the dialectic of "Russia versus the West" that has emerged in political commentary since the Georgia invasion. It implies that the role NATO places now-- and  moreover, the symbolical value of NATO membership-- is indeed very different than it was fifteen years ago.

Dopo la crisi Georgiana, il nuovo terreno di scontro sembra quello Sud Americano, dove la tensione è salita dopo l’ intensificarsi delle spinte autonomiste in Bolivia. Spinte sponsorizzate dagli USA contro il presidente Morales, che sta tentando un programma di riforme economiche e sociali che riduca un minimo la forbice economica che spacca molti paesi dell’ area in due classi sociali nettamente divise: straricchi, spesso bianchi; e poveri, spesso indios. Un attentato ad una pipeline boliviana ha provocato l’espulsione dell’ ambasciatore americano Phil Goldberg, già noto come uno degli artifici diplomatici della dissoluzione della ex Yugoslavia, seguita dalla reciproca espulsione dell’ ambasciatore di La Paz negli Usa.

Il Venezuela è subito intervenuto nella crisi espellendo a sua volta l’ ambasciatore di Washington e dichiarando che in caso di secessione avrebbe appoggiato qualsiasi movimento boliviano di riunificazione che avesse tentato di ristabilire il legittimo governo democratico di Evo Morales. Questo dopo che nei giorni scorsi Schavez aveva annunciato di essere riuscito a sventare un tentativo di assassinarlo, bombardando il palazzo presidenziale. Il colpo di stato sarebbe maturato in ambienti militari appoggiati dagli USA, pronti a partecipare all’ azione con aerei dalle insegne contraffatte per farli sembrare appartenenti alle forza armate venezuelane.

In questo caos si inserisce il sempre più stretto rapporto tra Venezuela e Russia. Da tempo la Russia fornisce armi ed addestramento a Schavez, tanto che molti ufficiali venezuelani sono nel paese; ora i rapporti si intensificano con esercitazioni navali (14 novembre) e l’ arrivo in Venezuela di due cacciabombardieri strategici russi TU-160, per esercitazioni congiunte (Il TU-160 è in grado di trasportare dodici missili da crociera con testata nucleare). Schavez spera inoltre di acquistare un "poderoso sistema di difesa antiaerea russo".

Sembra che il confronto tra USA e Russia sia a tutto campo e non ristretto all’ Euroasia. Molti parlano di ritorno alla Guerra Fredda, ma è del tutto errato. Durante la guerra fredda c’era una volontà reciproca di scontro/confronto ed ideologie differenti a sorreggerla. Oggi si scontrano una superpotenza ancorata a schemi di pensiero antiquati e sorda ad ogni altrui richiesta; e una potenza rinascente divisa tra nazionalismi rinascenti e la semplice volontà di tutelare i propri interessi, troppe volte inascoltati.

La Russia da tempo sembra orientata a stringere i rapporti con UE e America; ma, scontrandosi con sospetti crescenti e una politica americana di accerchiamento, sempre più spesso si è orientata verso la creazione di un qualche blocco che posso controbilanciare lo strapotere USA. Vanno in questo senso la creazione della Shangai Cooperation Organization[1] (SCO). e le riunioni a quattro con Brasile, Cina e India. Ma l’ opzione preferita del Cremlino resta ancora un’ intensificazione dei rapporti con la UE, che potrebbe essere interessata sia per ragioni economiche sia per guadagnare margini di manovra nei confronti dell’ alleato Americano. Ad oggi, però, Mosca si sente frustrata da una politica sorda sia Europea che Americana. I primi divisi tra “vecchia e nuova Europa”, tra nemici a priori e timidi amici, non riescono a formulare una politica chiara ed unitaria nei confronti degli ingombranti vicini, così i rapporti restano instabili e frantumati; i secondi intrappolati in una logica da Guerra Fredda cercano di spostare il confine della “libertà” sempre più vicino ai confini russi, tramite nuove adesioni alla Nato e l’ istallazione dello scudo antimissile in Europa Orientale, che lungi da essere come dichiarato in funzione anti-iraniana è chiaramente posizionato a difendere il mondo libero dal satana Russo.

Putin e soci guardano con giustificata preoccupazione a tale situazione e ancor più si rendono conto della loro scarsa influenza sulle decisioni degli organi internazionali e della poca volontà degli Americani di ascoltare le loro richieste e giungere ad un compromesso. Gli Usa, intento, vanno avanti come se la Russia fosse sparita. Mentre Mosca pretende di avere voce in capitolo e crede di aver diritto ad un ritrovato ruolo di potenza mondiale. Il punto è proprio questo gli USA vogliono una Russia debole ed accondiscendente, mentre il paese eurasiatico, nonostante numerosi problemi, soprattutto demografici e legati ad un economia troppo dipendente da materie prime; è di per sé una potenza e oggi sembra orientata verso la creazione di un mondo multipolare, in ogni caso pretende di essere ascoltata e tenuta di conto.

A Mosca ha fatto impressione l’ennesima sconfitta nel panorama mediale globale. Durante la crisi Georgiana i media globali, a guida USA; hanno praticato una vera e propria disinformazione, tanto che molti non hanno capito che ad attaccare per primo è stato il presidente georgiano filo-americano; tutto ciò è stato nascosto da roboanti titoli sull’ aggressione russa. Le ragioni dei russi sono rimaste in ombra, amplificando la sensazione di tanti Russi di un totale disinteresse a ciò che hanno da dire. I Media sono il palcoscenico principale delle guerre “post-moderne”, i Russi hanno ricevuto conferma che non sono un palcoscenico neutrale e che per loro non c’è spazio su di esso. Tacere una parte della realtà alimenta soltanto l’ incomprensione e l’ inimicizia. È di straordinaria importanza un sistema di Media più aperto sia per la comprensione più completa della realtà sia per evitare che si generi ulteriore frustrazione nei popoli che già si sentono inascoltati ed esclusi.

Sono tali atteggiamenti a spingere una Russia, orientata a rapporti stretti di reciproca convenienza con gli Europei, verso una contrapposizione storica che forse oggi ha poco senso. Gli Europei devono mettere in campo iniziative unitarie serie e ridefinire completamente i loro rapporti interni ed esterni pena il ritrovarsi di nuovo tra due fuochi, divisi e con poca rilevanza sul panorama globale. Gli USA devono rendersi conto che nessuno gli ha affidato il comando supremo del mondo ed ascoltare le richieste altrui per potere così sfruttare quel soft power che è proprio ciò che ad es. la differenzia dalla Russia, così priva di potere di attrarre gli altri paesi da avere in questo uno dei suoi principali punti di debolezza . Ma tutto questo sembra lontano dal venire.

I rapporti USA-Russia andranno probabilmente velocemente deteriorandosi se vincerà le elezioni McCain, la cui vice si è detta pronta alla guerra con Putin, ma non è detto che l’elezione di Obama migliori di tanto la situazione; visto che gli americani si troveranno difronte a dure scelte che sostanzialmente si ridurranno ad una ridefinizione completa della propria politica estera che dovrà tra l’ altro decidere chi è il vero nemico tra il terrorismo, la Cina e la Russia. Visti i stretti rapporti economici ed interessi comuni non indifferenti non è da escludere un accordo di lungo periodo con i cinesi anche proprio in funzione anti-Russa, la fobia americana è più che condivisa a Pechino. In ogni casa il mondo va verso un periodo di ancora più profonda ridefinizione degli equilibri globali che potrebbe riservare profonde sorprese.

L’ Europa farà parte del nuovo mondo multicentrico o deciderà per il declino e la dipendenza?

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backs Russia over Georgia Arms Embargo

Heads of the security councils of a post-Soviet security bloc have backed a Russian proposal to impose an arms embargo on Georgia, the head of the Russian Security Council said on Wednesday. (Cache of Georgian arms found in Kodori Gorge - Image gallery)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Monday that Moscow would like to see the imposition of an embargo on arms supplies to Georgia until a change of leadership takes place in the Caucasus state.

"We are against arming Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili's regime, and creating preconditions for the genocide of this or another ethnic group," Nikolai Patrushev said following a session of the heads of the security councils of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Yerevan, Armenia.

The Collective Security Treaty Organization is a security grouping comprising Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

"We know that a number of countries had been supplying arms to Georgia and Saakashvili, and that the country's military budget had increased by more than 30 times. It is clear that they were preparing for it military conflict," Patrushev said.

South Ossetia was attacked by Georgian forces on August 8. The majority of residents of South Ossetia hold Russian citizenship, and Moscow launched a massive operation to expel Georgian troops from the region and to reinforce its peacekeepers.

According to information provided last month by the Russian General Staff, since 2005, Georgian tank numbers increased from 98 to 183, armored vehicles from 83 to 134, artillery weapons from 96 to 238, combat helicopters from three to nine, and warplanes from seven to nine.

"We cannot but be concerned that humanitarian aid to Georgia is delivered by NATO warships equipped with modern weapons," Patrushev said.

Tensions between Russia and the West have been heightened further by the build up in the Black Sea of U.S. and NATO naval vessels delivering humanitarian aid to Georgia. In an apparent response, Russia last week sent a group of warships, including the Moskva missile cruiser, to Sukhumi, the capital of Abkhazia.

The U.S. has staunchly supported its ally Georgia throughout the crisis and has sent millions of dollars in humanitarian aid to the South Caucasus state. Russia has however expressed concern over the aid shipments, saying that it suspects they could include arms. The U.S. has denied the allegation.

Patrushev also said that the security organization backed Russia's response to the Georgian military offensive in South Ossetia.

"The heads of the CSTO security councils have also backed Russia's measures, just like the SCO members did earlier... There is no doubt that the Georgians deliberately started the war," he said.

China and the other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) voiced their support last month for Russia's actions in regard to Georgia and South Ossetia following the recent conflict.

The security bloc, seen as a counterweight to NATO's influence in Eurasia, comprises China, Russia, and four Central Asian states - Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

However, the Asian countries stopped short of backing Russia's move to recognize the independence of the breakaway province, along with Georgia's other rebel region, Abkhazia.

Russia officially recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia last week despite Western warnings, saying the move was needed to protect the regions.

Meanwhile, Yury Zhadobin, the state secretary of the Belarusian Security Council, told journalists on Wednesday that the issue of South Ossetia and Abkhazia joining the Union State of Russia and Belarus was likely to be discussed Thursday at a meeting of CSTO foreign ministers.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20080903/116521515.html

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Nicaragua recognizes independence of Abkhaiza & South Ossetia

The Nicaraguan government "recognizes the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia", Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega told a rally held on the occasion of the 29th anniversary of the creation of the Sandinista armed forces of Nicaragua.

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/level2.html?NewsID=13037604&PageNum=0

Venezuela did it last week.

Only one Western source reporting this at the moment - NASDAQ...

Nicaragua Recognizes South Ossetia, Abkazia

(RTTNews) - Daniel Ortega, the left-leaning President of Nicaragua, announced Wednesday that his country recognizes the independence of the two breakaway Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"The government of Nicaragua recognizes the independence of the republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and we fully agree with the Russian government's position that that conflict may end through dialogue with European countries," said President Daniel Ortega in a speech.

With Ortega's announcement on Thursday, Nicaragua became the second country to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia after Russia.

Last week, Russia had recoganized the independence of the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkazia, despite strong objections from the Western countries.

Russia responded to a Georgian effort to annex the breakaway region of South Ossetia by force by launching a massive counter-attack and by occupying large parts of Georgian territory.

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A Major War: Not Just Rumors

The crisis in relations between the United States and Russia over Georgia heralds a particularly dangerous period in world affairs: the era of asymmetrical multipolarity. A major war between two or more major powers is more likely in this configuration than in any other model of global balance known to history. The most stable system is bipolarity based on the doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), which was prevalent from the 1950s until the end of the Cold War. The awareness of both superpowers that they would inflict severe and unavoidable reciprocal damage on each other or their allies in a nuclear war was coupled with the acceptance that each had a sphere of dominance or vital interest that should not be infringed upon.

With Brest-Litovsk and the Barbarossa in mind, Stalin "intended to turn the countries conquered by Soviet armies into buffer zones to protect Russia" (Kissinger). The Western equivalent, also essentially defensive, was defined by the Truman Doctrine (1947) Proxy wars were fought in the grey zone all over the Third World, most notably in the Middle East, but they were kept localized even when a superpower was directly involved (Vietnam, Afghanistan). This model was the product of unique circumstances without an adequate historical precedent, however, which are unlikely to be repeated in the foreseeable future.

The most stable model of international relations that is both historically recurrent and structurally repeatable in the future is the balance of power system in which no single great power is either physically able or politically willing to seek hegemony. This model was prevalent from the Peace of Westphalia (1648) until Napoleon, from Waterloo until around 1900, and from Versailles until 1933. It demands a relative equilibrium between the key powers (usually five to seven) that hold each other in check and function within a recognized set of rules that has come to be known as "international law." Wars between great powers do occur, but they are limited in scope and intensity because the warring parties tacitly accept the fundamental legitimacy and continued existence of their opponent(s).

If one of the powers becomes markedly stronger than others and if its decision-making elite internalizes an ideology that demands or at least justifies hegemony, the inherently unstable system of asymmetrical multipolarity will develop. In all three known instances—Napoleonic France after 1799, the Kaiserreich from around 1900, and the Third Reich after 1933—the challenge could not be resolved without a major war.

The government of the United States is now acting in a manner structurally reminiscent of those three powers. Having proclaimed itself the leader of an imaginary "international community," it goes further than any previous would-be hegemon in treating the entire world as the American sphere of interest. As I pointed out two weeks ago, the formal codification came in the National Security Strategy of September 2002, which presented the specter of open-ended political, military, and economic domination of the world by the United States acting unilaterally against "rogue states" and "potentially hostile powers" and in pursuit of an end to "destructive national rivalries." To that end, the administration pledged "to keep military strength beyond challenge, thereby making the destabilizing arms races of other eras pointless, and limiting rivalries to trade and other pursuits of peace."

Any attempt by a single power to keep its military strength beyond challenge is inherently destabilizing, and results—sooner or later—in the emergence of an effective counter-coalition. Napoleon finally faced one at the Völkerschlacht at Leipzig in 1813. "There is no balance of power in Europe but me and my twenty-four army corps," the Kaiser famously boasted in 1901. Within years he was also building a high seas fleet. By 1907, Wilhelmine Germany engendered a counter-coalition that prompted even traditional rivals like Britain and Russia to join forces (the latter to be replaced by the United States in 1917). And as for the most recent Griff nach der Weltmacht, by the second week of December 1941 Germany was irrevocably doomed to another defeat.

An early yet certain symptom of destabilizing asymmetry in action is the would-be hegemon's tendency to claim an ever-widening sphere of influence or interference at the expense of his rivals. In the run-up to 1914 this was heralded by the Kruger Telegram (1896) and exemplified by the German bid to build the railway from Berlin to Baghdad (1903) and by the First Moroccan Crisis (1905). Neither Napoleon nor Hitler knew any «natural» limits, but their ambition was essentially confined to Europe. With the United States today the novelty is that this ambition is extended—literally—to the whole world. Not only the Western Hemisphere, not just the «Old Europe,» Japan, or Israel, but also Taiwan, Korea, and such unlikely places as Georgia, Estonia, Kosovo, or Bosnia, are considered vitally important. The globe itself is now effectively claimed as America's sphere of influence, Russia's Caucasian, European and Central Asian back yards most emphatically included.

Four weeks ago the game itself became alarmingly asymmetrical. For America it is still ideological, but for Russia it has become existential. Russia is now acting as a conservative, pre-1914 European power in seeking to protect its "near abroad." America is acting like a global revolutionary power, whose "near abroad" is literally everywhere.

It is therefore futile for Russia to try to "manage" the crisis in a pre-1914 manner and hope for some elusive softening on the other side, because the calculus in Washington is not rational. The counter-strategy of unpredictability, exemplified by Medvedev's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, is an eminently rational response, however. It may yet force the remnant of sanity inside the Beltway to try and exercise some adult supervision over the bipartisan "foreign policy community" of smokers in the arsenal.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10053

Faced with the first serious military conflict since its establishment in 2001, the SCO has failed to take a clear-cut stance, hiding its ambiguity behind statements of concern over the tensions in the region and praise for Russia’s role.

Led by China, the group’s other four members -- the Central Asian ex-Soviet republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan -- refrained from condemning Georgia for igniting the conflict. They stopped short of endorsing the birth of the two independent republics of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, now formally recognised by Moscow.

The reasons? China doesn't like seperatism of any shade, while the other four don't like the idea that Russian tanks can roll in and change anything they please.

Moscow Times

2nd September, 2008

One of most discussed aspects of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Dushanbe over the weekend was the third point of the summit declaration devoted to the situation in South Ossetia. Although member nations expressed "deep concern" over the tensions surrounding this issue, they also pledged to "support Russia's active role in facilitating peace and cooperation in the region."

Immediately following the signing of that declaration, the Western media began an intense and deliberate disinformation campaign to try to depict the position of SCO countries as not supporting Russia's policy toward Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

It is true that SCO countries did not sign on to Russia's initiative and recognize Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's independence. But Moscow had little hope of that happening, knowing that most of those countries are contending with their own domestic separatist movements. In any case, President Dmitry Medvedev did not call for such a step during his official remarks in Dushanbe.

The current disagreement between Russia and the United States over the Georgian conflict has strengthened interest in the SCO. Although the U.S.-European bloc remains the most influential in the world, the separate regional power centers in Russia, China and Iran are rivals to the West in their own rights. Moreover, an increasing number of Russia's neighbors, including SCO members, understand very well that a good relationship with Russia is the best guarantor of their security and territorial integrity.

The role of the SCO will increase in importance as Russia and China combine their common interests. Although China does not support Russia's decision to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it will look favorably upon Russia's attempts to stop further NATO expansion. The increasing confrontation between the East and West could drive the SCO to accept long-time Chinese ally Pakistan as a new member. This is something that Iran wants as well. With the ouster of President Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan might be able to pursue policies less dominated by the West.

In any case, SCO states will strive to provide security for Central Asia, and it might even propose their own solution for stabilizing Afghanistan after what appears to be the impending failure of Western efforts there. Although Afghan President Hamid Karzai is dependent upon the West, it was clear from his statements at the Dushanbe summit that he is disappointed with U.S. actions and is interested in receiving greater support from the SCO.

Another interesting idea is the creation of an alternative organization to the Group of Eight that would be composed of the current BRIC states --Brazil, Russia, India and China -- as well as a few additional major states such as Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa, Mexico and Nigeria. Within a few years, it would be able to compete for influence with the G8 -- especially if Russia is expelled from the organization.

In the new world configuration, the West must accept the hard truth that it will no longer achieve everything it wants and that it can no longer claim to speak on behalf of what it likes to call the "civilized world" or the "international community." The West's understanding of international law and justice does not always coincide with that of other countries, which cannot always be coerced into agreement.

An alternative to the current model of confrontation could become a world in which power centers reach agreement on shared interests. Russia, China and many European countries would be interested in such a cooperative world. Some prominent public figures in the United States, such as former Senator Sam Nunn and former Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, have promoted this idea. But the current leadership in the United States and its allies are pushing the world toward increased confrontation.

Alexander Lukin is director of the Center for East Asian and SCO Studies at Moscow State University for International Relations.

The USG Open Source Center translates an article from the Russian press proposing a strategic alliance between Russia and Iran.

The recognition of South Ossetia's and Abkhazia's independence by Russia is a timely step to protect these republics from new Georgian aggression. However, taking into account the United States' plans to expedite Georgia's and Ukraine's accession to the NATO military-political bloc, the situation near the Russian border remains alarming. At the same time Moscow has a lot of possibilities to take balanced counter measures to the United States' and entire NATO's unfriendly plans. In particular, Russia can rely on those countries that effectively oppose the United States' and their satellites' expansion. Only collective efforts can help to create a situation which would, if not eliminate then at least reduce the risk of the Cold War's transformation into local and global conflicts.

For instance, Moscow could strengthen its military-technical ties with Syria and launch negotiations on the reestablishment of its military presence in Cuba. However, the most serious step which the United States and especially Israel fear (incidentally, Israel supplied arms to Georgia) is hypothetical revision of Russia's foreign policy with regard to Iran. A strategic alliance presuming the signing of a new large-scale military political treaty with Iran could change the entire geopolitical picture of the contemporary world.

New allied relations may result in the deployment of at least two military bases in strategic regions of Iran. One military base could be deployed in the north of the country in the Iranian province of Eastern Azerbaijan and the other one in the south, on the Island of Qeshm in the Persian Gulf. Due to the base in Iran's Eastern Azerbaijan Russia would be able to monitor military activities in the Republic of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey and share this information with Iran.

The deployment of a military base on the Island of Qeshm would allow Russia to monitor the United States' and NATO's activities in the Persian Gulf zone, Iraq and other Arab states. With the help of special equipment Russia could effectively monitor whois sailing toward this sea bottleneck, from where, and with what cargo on board to enter the World Ocean or to return.

For the first time ever Russia will have a possibility to stop suspicious vessels and ships and inspect their cargo, which the Americans have been cynically doing in that zone for many decades. In exchange for the deployment of its military bases Russia could help the Iranians to deploy modern air defense and missile defense systems along the perimeter of its borders. Tehran, for instance, needs Russia's modern S-400 SAMs.

The Iranian leadership paid close attention to reports stating that the Georgian Government's secret resolution gave the United States and Israel a carte blanche to use Georgian territory and local military bases for delivering missile and bomb strikes against Iranian facilities in the event of need. Another neighbor, Turkey, is not only a NATO member, but also a powerful regional opponent and economic rival of Iran. In addition to this, the Republic of Azerbaijan has become the West's key partner on the issue of transportation of Caspian energy resources to world markets. The Iranians are also concerned at Baku's plans to give Western (above all American) capital access to the so-called Azerbaijani sector of the Caspian Sea, which is fraught with new conflicts, because the legal status of the Caspian Sea has not been defined to date.

Russia and Iran can also accelerate the process of setting up a cartel of leading gas producers, which journalists have already dubbed the "gas OPEC." Russia and Iran occupy first and second place in the world respectively in terms of natural gas reserves. They jointly possess more than 60 percent of the world's gas deposits. Therefore, even small coordination in the elaboration of a single pricing policy may force one-half of the world, at least virtually entire Europe, to moderate its ambitions and treat gas exporters in a friendlier manner.

While moving toward allied relations, Russia can develop cooperation with Iran in virtually all areas, including nuclear power engineering. Russia can earn tens of billions of dollars on the construction of nuclear power plants in Iran alone. Tehran can receive not only economic, but also political support from Russia in the development of its own atomic energy sector.

In addition to this,in view of the imminent breakup of the CIS from which Georgia already pulled out, Russia could accelerate the process of accepting Iran as an equal member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). By accepting Iran, one of the key countries of the Islamic world, the organization could change fundamentally both in terms of its potential and in terms of its regional role. Meanwhile, as an SCO member Iran will find itself under the collective umbrella of this organization, including under the protection of such nuclear states as Russia and China. This will lay foundations for a powerful Russia-Iran-China axis,which the United States and its allies fear so much.

(Description of Source: Moscow Vremya Novostey in Russian — Liberal, small-circulation paper that sometimes criticizes the government)

http://www.juancole.com/2008/08/osc-russia-iran-alliance.html

Vladimir Radyuhin

The Hindu

29th August, 2008

 
United stand: (From left) Presidents Nursultan Nazarbayev (Kazakhstan), Hu Jintao (China), Kurmanbek Bakiyev (Kyrgyzstan), Emomali Rakhmon (Tajikistan), Dmitry Medvedev (Russia) and Islam Karimov (Uzbekistan) in Dushanbe on Thursday.

MOSCOW: Russia has won crucial support for its peace efforts in South Ossetia from China and other allies in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

At a summit meeting in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, on Thursday, the six-nation SCO security grouping explicitly backed Russia’s “active role” in restoring peace in the region and endorsing a six-point peace plan worked out jointly with France.

“The SCO states welcome the adoption in Moscow on August 12 of six principles of settling the conflict in South Ossetia and support Russia’s active role in contributing to peace and cooperation in the region,” said the leaders of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in a joint declaration adopted at their one-day summit.

Though the SCO leaders refrained from condemning Georgia’s military attack on its breakaway territory of South Ossetia, their solidarity with Russia stood in stark contrast with the West’s denunciation of the “Russian aggression” against Georgia. The SCO support came ahead of an EU summit meeting on Monday called to discuss ways to punish Russia.

“The SCO states express grave concern in connection with the recent tensions around the South Ossetian issue and urge the sides to solve existing problems peacefully, through dialogue, and to make efforts facilitating reconciliation and talks,” said the SCO declaration.

It made no reference to Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. Russia’s President Dmitry Medvedev, who attended the summit, thanked the SCO leaders for their “understanding and objective assessment of Russia’s peacemaking efforts”.

“I hope [the SCO stand] will send a serious signal to those, who try… to justify the bloody adventure of the Georgian leadership,” said Mr. Medvedev, adding that Georgia’s “criminal actions” had been “connived and incited” from abroad.

At a one-to-one meeting with Mr. Medvedev, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev said his country “understands and supports the measures taken by Russia”.

“I’m amazed at the West’s failure to acknowledge the fact that it was Georgian armed forces who attacked peaceful civilians in Tskhinvali,” said Mr. Nazarbayev in televised remarks.

“This started the conflict, and Russia’s all subsequent actions were aimed at stopping the bloodshed,” he said.

"The Montreal Convention assures the free passage of Russian warships through the Straits of Bosphorous. Under the circumstances, NATO's grandiose schemes to occupy the Black Sea as its private lake seem outlandish now. There must be a lot of egg on the faces of the NATO brains in Brussels and their patrons in Washington and London."

The reason being , as we have been at pains to point out, that the whole Georgia operation, from the US point of view, was concerned, not with the realities of geopolitics but with saving the knecks of Cheney and co. It may seem remarkable that thousands of lives were sacrificed, a key US ally was humiliated and all foreign policy rationality abandoned just to save a few war criminals from the dock, but such is the reality of politics at the end of empire.

M K Bhadrakumar

Asia Times

30th August, 2008

If the struggle in the Caucasus was ever over oil and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) agenda towards Central Asia, the United States suffered a colossal setback this week. Kazakhstan, the Caspian energy powerhouse and a key Central Asian player, has decided to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Russia over the conflict with Georgia, and Russia's de facto control over two major Black Sea ports has been consolidated. 

At a meeting in the Tajik capital Dushanbe on Thursday on the sidelines of the summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), Kazakh President Nurusultan Nazarbayev told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that Moscow could count on Astana's support in the present crisis. 

In his press conference in Dushanbe, Medvedev underlined that his SCO counterparts, including China, showed understanding of the Russian position. Moscow appears satisfied that the SCO summit also issued a statement on the Caucasus developments, which, inter alia, said, "The leaders of the SCO member states welcome the signing in Moscow of the six principles for regulating the South Ossetia conflict, and support Russia's active role in assisting peace and cooperation in the region." The SCO comprises China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. 
There were tell-tale signs that something was afoot when the Kazakh Foreign Ministry issued a statement on August 19 hinting at broad understanding for the Russian position. The statement called for an "unbiased and balanced assessment" of events and pointed out that an "attempt [was made] to resolve a complicated ethno-territorial issue by the use of force", which led to "grave consequences". The statement said Astana supported the "way the Russian leadership proposed to resolve the issue" within the framework of the United Nations charter, the Helsinki Final Act of 1975 and international law. 

The lengthy statement leaned toward the Russian position but offered a labored explanation for doing so. 

Kazakhstan has since stepped out into the thick of the diplomatic sweepstakes and whole-heartedly endorsed the Russian position. 
This has become a turning point for Russian diplomacy in the post-Soviet space. Nazarbayev said:

I am amazed that the West simply ignored the fact that Georgian armed forces attacked the peaceful city of Tskhinvali [in South Ossetia]. Therefore, my assessment is as follows: I think that it originally started with this. And Russia's response could either have been to keep silent or to protect their people and so on. I believe that all subsequent steps taken by Russia have been designed to stop bloodshed of ordinary residents of this long-suffering city. Of course, there are many refugees, many homeless. 

Guided by out bilateral agreement on friendship and cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia, we have provided humanitarian aid: 100 tons have already been sent. We will continue to provide assistance together with you. 

Of course, there was loss of life on the Georgian side - war is war. The resolution of the conflict with Georgia has now been shifted to some indeterminate time in the future. We have always had good relations with Georgia. Kazakhstan's companies have made substantial investments there. Of course, those that have done this want stability there. The conditions of the plan that you and [President of France Nicolas] Sarkozy drew up must be implemented, but some have begun to disavow certain points in the plan. 

However, I think that negotiations will continue and that there will be peace - there is no other alternative. Therefore, Kazakhstan understands all the measures that have been taken, and Kazakhstan supports them. For our part, we will be ready to do everything to ensure that everyone returns to the negotiating table.

From Moscow's point of view, Nazarbayev's words are worth their weight in gold. Kazakhstan is the richest energy producer in Central Asia and is a regional heavyweight. It borders China. The entire US regional strategy in Central Asia ultimately aims at replacing Russia and China as Kazakhstan's number one partner. American oil majors began making a beeline to Kazakhstan immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 - including Chevron, with which US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was associated. 

Unsurprisingly, Kazakhstan figured as a favorite destination for US Vice President Dick Cheney and President George W Bush has lavishly hosted Nazarbayev in the White House. 

The US had gone the extra league in cultivating Nazarbayev, with the fervent hope that somehow Kazakhstan could be persuaded to commit its oil to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, whose viability is otherwise in doubt. The pipeline is a crucial component of the US's Caspian great game. 

The US had gone to great lengths to realize the pipeline project against seemingly hopeless odds. In fact, Washington stage-managed the "color" revolution in Georgia in November 2003 (which catapulted Mikheil Saakashvili to power in Tbilisi) on the eve of the commissioning of the pipeline. The general idea behind the commotion in the South Caucasus was that the US should take control of Georgia through which the pipeline passes. 

Besides, Kazakhstan shares a 7,500 kilometer border with Russia, which is the longest land border between any two countries in the world. It would be a nightmare for Russian security if NATO were to gain a foothold in Kazakhstan. Again, the US strategy had targeted Kazakhstan as the prize catch for NATO in Central Asia. The US aimed to make a pitch for Kazakhstan after getting Georgia inducted into NATO. 

These American dreams have suffered a setback with the Kazakh leadership now closing ranks with Moscow. It seems Moscow outwitted Washington. 

Belarus voices support 
The other neighboring country sharing a common border with Russia, Belarus, has also expressed support for Moscow. Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko visited Medvedev in Sochi on August 19 to express his solidarity. 

"Russia acted calmly, wisely and beautifully. This was a calm response. Peace has been established in the region - and it will last," he commented. 

What is even more potent is that Russia and Belarus have decided to sign an agreement this autumn on creating a unified air defense system. This is hugely advantageous for Russia in the context of the recent US attempts to deploy missile defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic. 

According to Russian media reports, Belarus has several S-300 air defense batteries - Russia's advanced system - on combat duty and is currently negotiating the latest S-400 systems from Russia, which will be made available by 2010. 

Attention now shifts to the meeting of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which is scheduled to take place in Moscow on September 5. The CSTO's stance on the crisis in the Caucasus will be closely watched. 

It appears that Moscow and Kazakhstan are closely cooperating in setting the agenda of CSTO, whose members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The big question is how the CSTO gears up to meet NATO's expansion plans. The emergent geopolitical reality is that with Russia's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Moscow has virtually checkmated the US strategy in the Black Sea region, defeating its plan to make the Black Sea an exclusive "NATO lake". In turn, NATO's expansion plans in the Caucasus have suffered a setback. 

Not many analysts have understood the full military import of the Russian moves in recognizing the breakaway Georgian republics. Russia has now gained de facto control over two major Black Sea ports - Sukhumi and Poti. Even if the US-supported regime of Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine creates obstacles for the Russian fleet based in the Crimean port of Sevastopol - in all probability, Moscow will shrug off any Ukrainian pressure tactic - the fleet now has access to alternative ports on the Black Sea. Poti, in particular, has excellent facilities dating to the Soviet era. 
The swiftness with which Russia took control of Poti must have made the US livid with anger. Washington's fury stems from the realization that its game plan to eventually eliminate Russia's historical role as a "Black Sea power" has been rendered a pipe dream. Of course, without a Black Sea fleet, Russia would have ceased to be a naval power in the Mediterranean. In turn, Russia's profile in the Middle East would have suffered. The Americans indeed had an ambitious game plan towards Russia. 
There is every indication that Moscow intends to assert the strategic presence of its Black Sea Fleet. Talks have begun with Syria for the expansion of a Russian naval maintenance base at the Syrian port of Tartus. The Middle East media recently suggested in the context of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to Moscow that Russia might contemplate shifting its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Syria. But this is an incorrect reading insofar as all that Russia needs is a supply and maintenance center for its warships, which operate missions in the Mediterranean. In fact, the Soviet navy's 5th Mediterranean Squadron had made use of Tartus port for such purpose. 

China shows understanding 
Moscow will approach the CSTO summit pleased with the SCO's backing, even it it was not without reservations. Medvedev said of the SCO meeting,

Of course, I had to tell our partners what had actually happened, since the picture painted by some of the Western media unfortunately differed from real facts as to who was the aggressor, who started all this, and who should bear the political, moral and ultimately the legal responsibility for what happened ... 

Our colleagues gratefully received this information and during a series of conversations we concluded that such events certainly do not strengthen the world order, and that the party that unleashed the aggression should be responsible for its consequences ... I am very pleased to have been able to discuss this with our colleagues and to have received from them this kind of support for our efforts. We are confident that the position of the SCO member states will produce an appropriate resonance through the international security, and I hope this will give a serious signal to those who are trying to justify the aggression that was committed.

It must have come as a relief to Moscow that China agreed to line up behind such a positive formulation. On Thursday, the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow also seems to have had its first contact with the Chinese Embassy regarding the issue. Significantly, the Foreign Ministry statement said the meeting between Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexei Borodavkin and Chinese ambassador Liu Guchang took place at the Chinese initiative. 

The statement claimed, "The Chinese side was informed of the political and legal motives behind Russia's decision andexpressed an understanding of them." (Emphasis added.) It is highly unlikely that on such a sensitive issue, Moscow would have unilaterally staked a tall claim without some degree of prior tacit consent from the Chinese side, which is a usual diplomatic practice. 

The official Russian news agency report went a step further and highlighted that "China had expressed its understanding of Russia's decision to recognize Georgia's breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia". 

The favorable stance by Belarus, Kazakhstan and China significantly boosts Moscow's position. In real terms, the assurance that the three big countries that surround Russia will remain on friendly terms no matter the West's threat to unleash a new cold war, makes a huge difference to Moscow's capacity to maneuver. Any time now - possibly this weekend - we may expect Belarus to announce its recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. 

Clearly, Moscow is disinterested to mount any diplomatic campaign to rally support from the world community for the sovereignty and independence of the two breakaway provinces. As a Moscow commentator put it, "Unlike in comrade Leonid Brezhnev's time, Moscow is not trying to press any countries into supporting it on this issue. If it did, it could find quite a few sympathizers, but who cares?" 

It serves Moscow's purpose as long as the world community draws an analogy between Kosovo and the two breakaway provinces. In any case, the two provinces have been totally dependent on Russia for economic sustenance. 

With the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, what matters critically for Moscow is that if the West now intends to erect any new Berlin Wall, such a wall will have to run zig-zag along the western coast of the Black Sea, while the Russian naval fleet will always stay put on the east coast and forever sail in and out of the Black Sea. 

The Montreal Convention assures the free passage of Russian warships through the Straits of Bosphorous. Under the circumstances, NATO's grandiose schemes to occupy the Black Sea as its private lake seem outlandish now. There must be a lot of egg on the faces of the NATO brains in Brussels and their patrons in Washington and London. 

Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.

Global Research, August 26, 2008

The Trilateral Commission was founded in 1973 by David Rockefeller as an off-shoot of the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR). David Rockefeller was chairman of the CFR in 1970 and subsequently became the founding chairman of the Trilateral Commission. Soon the membership of the Commission had grown to 300 members, including prominent political figures like Zbigniew Brzezinski. Most members of the Trilateral Commission are bankers, media moguls, or corporate CEOs, primarily from North America, Europe and Japan, while all members of the CFR are U.S. Citizens.

The Commission seeks to extend its influence abroad and is careful to avoid the scrutiny of congressional investigations. The CFR on the other hand, focuses on the control of American media.

When American media discuss globalism, they rarely mention that the Trilateral Commission sets most global economic goals, primary among them being the creation of a one-world system of trade. It is basically a form of fascism in which global corporations and their elite CEOs determine the policies and direction of world governments. The creation of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank after World War II was intended to encourage Third World countries to borrow money from wealthy nations, so long as they agreed to the imposition of a wide range of “structural adjustment policies.” Any nation borrowing money from either organization would not be allowed to nationalize its natural resources and would be unable to prevent