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NFL Previews: Week One

piratings — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 21:51:14 +0000

NFL Preview—Week One

St. Louis Rams (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

Time: 1 PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Partly cloudy and windy with a 20% chance of showers with temperatures in the low 80’s

PiRate: Philadelphia by 22

Mean: Philadelphia by 12

Bias: Philadelphia by 11

Vegas: Philadelphia by 7½

Ov/Un: 44

Strategy: PHILADELPHIA -7½ and -340

I believe the Rams will suffer through another long season, and Coach Scott Linehan won’t be there at the end. As for the Eagles, they could easily bounce back with a big season. This is obviously a must-win game if Philly really is back. I expect Brian Westbrook to have a big day, as the Eagle offensive line should control the Ram defensive line. While I don’t like going with a 7½-point pick, I like the Eagles’ chances to win by more than two touchdowns. The Eagles may be without both of their starting wideouts, so if you want some insurance, you can buy a point and get the spread under a touchdown.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-0) at New Orleans Saints (0-0)

Time: 1 PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Dome

PiRate: Pk

Mean: New Orleans by 2

Bias: New Orleans by 4

Vegas: New Orleans by 3

Ov/Un: 42½

Strategy: 10-point Teaser OVER 32½

New Orleans has an offense capable of scoring 450 points this year, while Tampa Bay’s defense should hold opponents to about 17 points per game. Drew Brees should lead the Saints to the end zone at least twice with a couple more field goal chances. Tampa should score at least 14 points, so I like the over in a tease. At 32½, it only takes a 20-14 score to cover, and I cannot see the Saints being held into the teens or holding the Bucs below 14.

New York Jets (0-0) at Miami Dolphins (0-0)

Time: 1 PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: 30% chance of Thunderstorms with temperatures in the low 90’s

PiRate: New York by 3

Mean: New York by 2

Bias: New York by 4

Vegas: New York by 3

Ov/Un: 36

Strategy: 10-point teaser OVER 26

Four weeks ago, nobody thought this game might be the biggest game of the opening week, but it just might be now that Broadway Quatro is the new kid in town. Favre won’t pick apart the new Dolphins, but he should lead the Jets to paydirt at least a couple of times.

These teams combined for more than 50 points in both of last year’s games, and even though both are better defensively, I don’t expect this game to finish 14-10. A 17-10 win wins this one for you in a teaser.

Kansas City Chiefs (0-0) at New England Patriots (0-0)

Time: 1 PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Rain early then cloudy and windy with temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s

PiRate: New England by 31

Mean: New England by 17

Bias: New England by 15

Vegas: New England by 15

Ov/Un: 44

Strategy: 10-point teaser NEW ENGLAND -5

Yawn! This game could become one of the ugliest games in years. Last year, the Pats beat some weaker teams by scores of 52-7, 56-10, and 38-7. They beat some good teams by scores of 38-14, 34-17, 48-27, and 34-13.

The Chiefs are going to take a step back this year as they start over from scratch in a youth movement. 4-12 could be hard to duplicate.

New England might be 7-10 points weaker this year than last year, but even so, they are at least two touchdowns better even with Tom Brady not 100%. I cannot see a scenario where the Patriots when by less than five points.

Houston Texans (0-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-0)

Time: 1 PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and temperatures in the upper 70’s

PiRate: Pittsburgh by 9

Mean: Pittsburgh by 7

Bias: Pittsburgh by 4

Vegas: Pittsburgh by 6

Ov/Un: 43

Strategy: Pittsburgh -250

This is a game that has me a little hesitant to play. The Steelers should win, but they are at the top of one of the weakest divisions while the Texans are at the bottom of one of the strongest divisions. I expect this game to go over the total of 43, and I believe the Steelers will win at home, but I am not confident of those numbers.

Pittsburgh is going to open up their offense and pass the ball more than they have in many years. While their offensive numbers should go up, it could take a few weeks to really get untracked.

Houston might be ready to take another step forward, but I’m not sure they have the talent to win on the road against a defending division champion. The only confident wager for me here is to take the Steelers to win the game.

Cincinnati Bengals (0-0) at Baltimore Ravens (0-0)

Time: 1 PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and temperatures in the low 80’s

PiRate: Cincinnati by 1

Mean: Baltimore by 1

Bias: Baltimore by 2

Vegas: Baltimore by 1

Ov/Un: 38

Strategy: 10-point teaser OVER 28

This game may be affected by more intangibles than any other week one game. Cincinnati has been a team mired neck deep in turmoil and dissension all spring and summer. They have the makings of an outstanding offense with Carson Palmer throwing to Ocho Cinqo, Chris Henry, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. I wouldn’t want to rely on two of those three receivers when the going gets tough (you can figure out which two), but if the Bengals get off to a good start, they could hang a big number on the Ravens.

Baltimore is a team in transition. With Kyle Boller out, Joe Flacco assumes control of the offense. The rookie from Delaware faces a rather weak defense, so he has a chance to put up some halfway decent numbers in his first game. I wouldn’t count on a first-time rookie starter winning an NFL game, even though it is at home against an opponent that should yield 23-25 points per game.

The Ravens defense is weaker than it was a few years ago, and they will not be able to stop Cincinnati. I think Baltimore will be able to score a couple times at a minimum, so I like teasing the totals in this game and picking the Over.

Detroit Lions (0-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-0)

Time: 1 PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Dome

PiRate: Detroit by 4

Mean: Atlanta by 1

Bias: Atlanta by 3

Vegas: Detroit by 3

Ov/Un: 38½

Strategy: 10-point teaser ATLANTA +13

My ratings disagree on the outright winner for this game, so I automatically look at teasing the spread in favor of the underdog. Getting the Falcons and 13 sounds like a good idea when I think they have a 50-50 chance of winning at home over a team that should finish below .500.

Matt Ryan may have a better rookie season than a lot of former great quarterbacks had in their first year. Rookie tackle Sam Baker will have a major impact in the offensive line, and Ryan will feel safe on his back side. I think Coach Mike Smith will have a successful debut, as Detroit’s first game with a new offense will find the Lions struggling to score more than 17 points. If Detroit scores 17, they won’t win by 13, so I’m taking Atlanta in a teaser.

Seattle Seahawks (0-0) at Buffalo Bills (0-0)

Time: 1 PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and temperatures in the mid 70’s

PiRate: Seattle by 3

Mean: Seattle by 1

Bias: Seattle by 3

Vegas: Buffalo by 1

Ov/Un: 38½

Strategy: Seattle +100 & 10-point teaser SEATTLE +11

I’m not sold on Buffalo’s chances for making the playoffs this year. In fact, I can see the Bills taking a small step backward if they struggle out of the blocks.

This is the start of Seahawk coach Mike Holmgren’s final season. Seattle has some holes, but they are still strong enough to repeat again as NFL West champs. Since the Bills are a one-point pick, there is no need to take Seattle straight up. You can get Seattle at even odds in the money line, and you only come out worse if the two teams play to the first NFL tie in a long, long time. Even should Buffalo find a way to win, they aren’t going to beat Seattle by double digits. So, I’m using the Seahawks in a teaser parlay at +11.

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-0)

Time: 1 PM EDT

TV: CBS

Forecast: Sunny with temperatures in the mid 80’s

PiRate: Jacksonville by 7

Mean: Jacksonville by 2

Bias: Jacksonville by 2

Vegas: Jacksonville by 3

Ov/Un: 36½

Strategy: 10-point teaser UNDER 46½

I think the Jaguars have a 50% chance of unseating the Colts and taking the AFC South flag this year. As for Tennessee, they won’t be repeating as a playoff team unless Vince Young can take a major step forward. Young couldn’t lead the Titans to a touchdown in any of the four preseason games, and the Tennessee offensive line is not strong enough to open running lanes without some threat of a vertical or wide passing game.

The Titans play tough defense, especially early in the season before players get injured. They held the Jags to 10 points last year in the season opener, and they should hold them under 20 points this year. I can see this game ending in a 17-13 score, so Under 46½ is quite inviting.

Dallas Cowboys (0-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-0)

Time: 4:15 PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Partly cloudy with a 20% chance of showers and temperatures in the upper 70’s

PiRate: Dallas by 7

Mean: Dallas by 3

Bias: Dallas by 4

Vegas: Dallas by 5½

Ov/Un: 49

Strategy: None

Until I see whether Derek Anderson can live up to his billing that he created in 2007, I will be hesitant to put my neck out on the line in a Browns’ game. Cleveland could be a 450-500 point team if Anderson can repeat his 2007 performance. Adding Donte Stallworth to a receiving corps that has Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow could be something special. Cleveland could pass for more than 4,000 yards. That would make running back Jamal Lewis look like Barry Sanders if defenses had to stay in a nickel alignment for most of the game.

Dallas is the overwhelming choice to win the NFC championship this year, so they could easily cover on the road in this one.

I think it is smart to lay off this game and watch it just for fun. If you have to play this game, I’d consider teasing the Over at 39, Dallas at +4½, and Cleveland at +15½ in a 3-game parlay.

Carolina Panthers (0-0) at San Diego Chargers (0-0)

Time: 4:15 PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Sunny with temperatures in the upper 70’s

PiRate: San Diego by 14

Mean: San Diego by 11

Bias: San Diego by 2

Vegas: San Diego by 9

Ov/Un: 41½

Strategy: 10-point teaser CAROLINA +19

Carolina is my choice to rebound from a losing season and win a division title this year, while San Diego is my choice to be the first team to clinch a division title. On a neutral field, this game would be close to a tossup in my opinion. The Chargers get at least an extra three points with Carolina having to travel from one coast to the other.

Carolina should average 20-23 points per game and give up no more than 18-20 points per game. San Diego should run the ball for 125 yards with LaDainian Tomlinson toting the pig, but the Panthers’ pass defense should be somewhat effective against Phillip Rivers. While the Chargers have a 55-60% chance of winning the game, I cannot see any possibility where they would win by 19 points. I actually like Carolina at +9, but I am a teaser player and love them at +19.

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)

Time: 4:15 PM EDT

TV: Fox

Forecast: Sunny with temperatures in the upper 80’s

PiRate: Arizona by 5

Mean: Arizona by 2

Bias: San Francisco by 3

Vegas: Arizona by 2½

Ov/Un: 42

Strategy: 10-point teaser OVER 32

In my mind, this is the top game of the week. One of these two teams is going to compete for a wildcard this season, and both of them will field wide-open and exciting offenses.

The weather is going to be ideal for the offenses, as the heat will have more of an effect on the defenses. With Kurt Warner and J.T. O’Sullivan leading their respective teams, this one should take on the look of an old AFL game from the 1960’s. I believe the 49ers are going to be a major surprise this year, but Arizona could just as easily take a step forward. Obviously, I won’t pick a side here, but I can see the teams scoring a combined 60 points. Over 42 is playable, so Over 32 in a 10-point teaser looks like money in the bank.

Chicago Bears (0-0) at Indianapolis Colts (0-0)

Time: 8:15 PM EDT

TV: NBC

Forecast: Clear with temperatures in the upper 70’s falling into the lower 70’s (if rain threatens, Lucas Oil Stadium’s roof will be closed)

PiRate: Indianapolis by 14

Mean: Indianapolis by 8

Bias: Indianapolis by 6

Vegas: Indianapolis by 9½

Ov/Un: 44

Strategy: 10-point teaser INDIANAPOLIS +½

This game can be renamed “20 Questions.” How well will Peyton Manning play coming off his injury? How much will not having center Jeff Saturday affect the Colts? Will Kyle Orton be effective as the Bears’ quarterback? Will Devin Hester do something special playing considerable amounts of time on offense, and will it hamper his return game any? Can Matt Forte be a difference maker in the Chicago backfield, or is he going to be the next Cedric BUSTon.

The only thing that is not a question is that the Colts will win this game. Since they are favored by 9½, a 10-point teaser makes them an underdog. That’s true value in my opinion.

Minnesota Vikings (0-0) at Green Bay Packers (0-0)

Time: 7 PM EDT Monday

TV: ESPN

Forecast: 40% chance of rain with temperatures falling from the low 60’s to the upper 50’s

PiRate: Green Bay by 3

Mean: Green Bay by 6

Bias: Green Bay by 1

Vegas: Green Bay by 2½

Ov/Un: 38

Strategy: None

Not only is this an arch rivalry game in week one, it is an early season match between two teams that should closely contend for the NFC North Division title. It marks the first real game for Aaron Rodgers at quarterback for the Packers, and it will be interesting to see how he performs under the eye of the national TV audience.

Minnesota has the best run defense in football, and Green Bay is not the best running team. Rodgers is going to have to win this game with his arm. Can he spot Donald Driver and Greg Jennings open downfield?

The addition of Jared Allen to the Vikings’ defensive line makes them a better pass rushing team than they have been in awhile. It should also make the secondary a better unit as quarterbacks won’t have as long to sit in the pocket and look for open receivers.

The question in this game is how effective can Viking quarterback Tarvaris Jackson be? He is much in the same boat as Vince Young. If he can take a step forward, Adrian Peterson will look even better, and the purple and white will be headed to the top of the standings in the black and blue division. If he cannot get to the next level, then the Vikings are looking at 8-8 or 9-7 at best.

I advise leaving this game alone. If Rodgers plays like he did in limited action last year, the Packers can win by two touchdowns. If Rodgers goes out with an injury, I’m not sure the Packers can find the end zone. On the other side, one injury to Adrian Peterson moves the Vikes from the division favorite to the back of the line behind the Bears and Lions.

Denver Broncos (0-0) at Oakland Raiders (0-0)

Time: 10:15 PM EDT Monday

TV: ESPN

Forecast: Clear with temperatures falling from the low 60’s to the upper 50’s

PiRate: Oakland by 3

Mean: Denver by 2

Bias: Denver by 1

Vegas: Denver by 3

Ov/Un: 41

Strategy: 10-point teaser OVER 31

I expect this game to be quite entertaining. Oakland’s offense will be more potent this year with JaMarcus Russell having some experience. Throw in one of the deepest running back contingent with Justin Fargas, Darren McFadden, and Michael Bush, and the Raiders are going to score points this year, maybe as much as 350.

Denver is quite a bit stronger on the attack side than they are on the stop side. Quarterback Jay Cutler was probably affected more by his undiagnosed diabetes than enemy pass rushers last year, so I look for a major improvement from him this year. Denver will have to outscore opponents to win games this year, and the Raiders will oblige to some extent. This has the makings of a high scoring affair, so a teasing of the total is the way to go.

The Imaginary Bank Account Debuts

Let me emphasize that I do this following exercise strictly as a make-believe game, and I do not bet on games and do not advocate others to do so. This is nothing more than an exercise for the fun of it.

Here’s the premise: The PiRates pillaged their way to 10 grand, and I deposited the money in the Buck-a-neer Bank of Commerce. Each week, I will wager $100 on a number of games and follow what happens to the account. I haven’t “wagered” on NFL games in two decades, as heretofore I did this for college games.

For those unfamiliar with how wagering works, here is a brief tutorial:

Betting on sides involves picking one team to beat the spread. If team A is a 5½-point pick over team B, and you take team B, you win if team B wins or loses by 5 points or less. If team A is a 5-point pick and wins by 5, then it is called a “push” and you neither win nor lose.

When you wager on sides, you put up $11 to $10 for the bookmaker. So, if you wager to win $100 and lose the wager, this is a $110 loss.

You can move the spread in half-point increments up to three points, but it lowers your payoff odds by $10 per half point (thus moving the spread by 1½ points changes the amount you must risk to win $100 by $30 to $140.)

A parlay wager combines two or more games into one wager. All games within the parlay must be picked correctly, but your payoff gets better. A 2-team parlay pays off at $160 for every $100 wagered. A 5-team parlay pays off at $2,500 for every $100 wagered, but your chances of winning one of these is very low.

Besides betting on one side of the spread, you can wager on the total points scored in the game by both teams. This is called “totals” wagering. If the totals line is 45, you can bet that the total points in the game will go OVER 45 or UNDER 45. The odds are the same as betting on the sides, and you can combine totals and sides betting in a parlay.

Teaser bets allow you to move the line for games by 6 to 16 points. All teasers are played as parlay wagers. For teasers under 10 points, you can have as little as a two-team parlay and as much as a seven-team parlay. For teasers between 10 and 12½ points, you must play a three-team parlay. For teasers of 13 to 16 points, you must play a four-team parlay. The odds differ on all these parlays. I like playing 3-game, 10-point parlays, and you risk $120 for every $100 you try to win.

There is another type of bet called the “Money Line.” In this type of wager, you simply must predict the winner of the game regardless of the spread. You must put up more money than the book if you bet on the favorite, while the book puts up more money than you if you bet on the underdog. If the favorite is listed at -350 and the underdog is listed at +330, you must put up $350 versus the book’s $100 if you bet on the favorite, while you put up $100 against the book’s $330 if you bet on the underdog. Be very careful when wagering on heavy favorites. If you bet on a favorite when they are listed at -1500 on the money line, you are putting up $1,500 against the book’s $100. One loss could cause you to have a losing season regardless of how well you do the rest of the year.

There are other alternative wagers, but these are the basic ways to play these games.

Here are my first selections for this exercise

(All Wagers are placed to win $100)

1. Philadelphia -340 vs. St. Louis

2. Pittsburgh -250 vs. Houston

3. Seattle +100 vs. Buffalo

4. Denver -3 vs. Oakland

5. Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit

6. 10-Point teaser

A. Tampa Bay & New Orleans Over 32½

B. New York Jets & Miami Over 26

C. New England -5 vs. Kansas City

7. 10-point teaser

A. Cincinnati & Baltimore Over 28

B. Atlanta +13 vs. Detroit

C. Seattle +11 vs. Buffalo

8. 10-point teaser

A. Jacksonville & Tennessee Under 46½

B. Carolina +19 vs. San Diego

C. San Francisco & Arizona Over 32

9. 10-point teaser

A. Indianapolis +½ vs. Chicago

B. Oakland & Denver Over 31

C. Pittsburgh & Houston Over 33

Have fun with this experiment. Since I have no real money on the line, I can be a little bit liberal with these games. If you actually must wager for real, please don’t go by my picks. I wouldn’t want you to lose your rent money based on my experimental math.

Week 2: Colin Cowherd's Wheel of Genius NCAA Football Picks

Flash Flash for the Cash — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 15:45:02 +0000

Colin, yeah that is him above, knows we are watching and reverted back to his real Wheel of Genius record at 5-1. Still awesome and we do not want to discredit him we just want to monitor him for accuracy. He was right on Florida and Fresno State last week, he just did not want those picks as part of his Wheel of Genius picks. Colin can run hot and we will continue to post his picks.

Also, if you have not seen his "lock" upsets of the year check, click here to check it out. He hit one last week with Alabama over Clemson.

Here are Colin's week 2 picks:

Florida Gators (-20) covers against Miami
Penn State (-15) covers against Oregon State
Georgia Tech (+7) covers against Boston College
Washington (+9.5) covers against BYU
West Virginia (-8) covers against East Carolina

The Herd is against us with Florida and Washington and with is on West Virginia. May the best group win.

Flash and Runny

Waking with the Pundit

pattisonpundit — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 13:46:52 +0000

The following hits brought to you by Penn State football

Your daily Eagles fix here: Scouting report for Sunday and watching points from Eagletarian.

Well, Bill Simmons is back, and he has a few NFL predictions (after a lengthy dissertation on blackjack in the day).

Jason Whitlock on Richard Collier, black athletes, violence and truckers vs. golfers (Editor's note: Excuse me?)

The series of the season opens tonight for the Phillies, as they take on the Mets. Can they find some of that magic from a year ago? God, I hope so.

Ladies and gentlemen, what you have in front of you is an amazing weekend for entertainment. This evening, the Mets and Phils kick off their series. Tomorrow at 1 is the Red Bull Soapbox Race in Manyunk. Plus, you've got Penn State vs. Oregon State and game two of the Phillies-Mets. Sunday, the Eagles open their season against the Rams, the Phils wrap up their series, and Entourage returns (Editor's note: Hopefully, this season will be better than last). Check back in this weekend for coverage from the Soapbox Race, The Week in Review, and whatever small asides I may put out there. God, I am pumped for this weekend.

A Community just for Football Fans...

leej — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 12:50:42 +0000

Just in time for the 2008 Football season Football Jabber has added The Locker Room Community. Think MySpace for the football fan! From the NFL Draft all the way to the Super Bowl...

2008 Week 2: Weekend NCAA Football Picks: RPJ Syndicate is on a Roll (Heidi Klum's rolls)

Flash Flash for the Cash — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 11:49:20 +0000

Some record keeping from last week:

RPJ Syndicate is 4-1
Flash Flash for the Cash is 2-0
Runny Pelvis the Fat is 1-1
Heidi Klum is hot as hell!!!

Yup hot chicks won out!!! Thanks for your input.

How this blog works is as follows. Flash Flash and Runny merge two successful betting systems to optimize their picks. RPJ Syndicate is our combined effort. Our solo picks are picks that failed one of our betting systems but each individual handicapper still loves and wants to put out there for our readers. The single most important fact is this.....we put our money where our mouth is!!! We share the gain, like last week, and share the pain, which is inevitable to bite us in the ass once in a blue moon and hopefully never but ee are realists and know that shiznit happens so we are not going to sit here and say we are always perfect or winners like our rivals. They are full of Lexington Steele's cahk, in their anus, and are just trying to make a quick buck at your expense. Over the course of the season we will win more than we lose and the proof is in our results plain and simple. We know some of you are winning with us because you share your gains with us via email at rpjsyndicate@gmail.com to the tune of thousands of dollars. You know who you are and please keep up the dialogue and share your thoughts with us.

This is always a little scary when we love this many games but we have to put our money to work when things are this good. We come at you with 8 games this weekend. On with the picks.....

RPJ PICKS (4-1 on the season)

These are all 1 unit bets for us. We think it is still too early to jack up some of these games.

Eastern Michigan at Michigan State (-21) - Michigan State is coming off an emotional loss at Cal. Sorry Spartan fans but they had no chance. Teams do not travel well when they head West. Sounds like a dumb reason to lose but it is the fact. Just ask Vols fans this week. Coach Dantonio is a good coach and has the Spartans moving down the right path. Javon Ringer is one of the best players in the Big Ten and one of the most overlooked players in football. He will break out this game.

Some ATS numbers:

Eastern Michigan Eagles
Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Eagles are 6-21 ATS in their last 27 non-conference games.
Eagles are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. Big Ten.
Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.

Michigan State Spartans
Nothing relevant

Looks to us like the Eagles do not play well after wins, out of conference, in September and versus the Big Ten. We smell an old fashioned arse whooping. Take Michigan State to the bank with an easy cover!

Central Michigan @ Georgia (-24) - This is the most painful bet we will ever lay. Yes we are going to bet against The Fever.

Dan LeFevour is simply the man. We admit that we have man-crushes. If Tebow was not playing right now all anybody would be talking about is The Fever. Fever is the second player in history to pass for more than 3,000 yards and rush for more than 1,000 yards. Vince Young was the first. Also, keep in mind that with all the well deserved accolades laid down on Tebow last year, The Fever was one rushing TD away from reaching the 20-20 club that won Tebow the Heisman (The Fever had 27 passing TD's to Tebow's 32).

The ATS numbers for both schools are good:

Chippewas are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Chippewas are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Chippewas are 24-7-3 ATS in their last 34 games overall.
Chippewas are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games on grass.
Chippewas are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Chippewas are 14-5-2 ATS in their last 21 games following a S.U. win.

Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.

It is a sad day but as Clemson proved last year, and that was Clemson, The Chips can not compete with elite competition. Bulldogs win big and cover!!!! Sorry Dan but we will jump back on your bandwagon later in the season.

BYU (-9) at Washington - BYU had the turnover jitters last week and still won 41-17. Washington pulled a Willingham and competed for one half before getting decimated in the second half. BYU always plays tough and has some experience winning against the Pac-10. Willingham is a clown and can not get talent to Washington and guards his players and practices with a steel curtain. He needs to look South to see that Pete Carroll holds open practices. Does this look like the face of a winner? Body language says it all.

The ATS numbers:
Cougars are 7-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Cougars are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Cougars are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
Cougars are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games.

Huskies are 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 home games.
Huskies are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on turf.

Washington has zero chance of winning this game. BYU is for real and will play in a decent bowl. 10 points should be enough. Take BYU to cover against the suckfest that is Ty Willingham. If you were not aware, Washington coach Ty Willingham is 6-21 in the Pac-10 and 1-9 against the other Northwest teams. So to reiterate....Take BYU to win and cover!!!

Ole Miss at Wake Forest (-7.5) - We are following one of our rules, Ole Miss will not travel well out of conference. Wake Forest is coming off an impressive easy win at Baylor and is coming home, after their first win ever in Texas and to a new stadium. They are going to fight like hell for that first home win and it will come at Ole Miss' expense. Houston Nutt versus Jim Grobe is no contest. Wake beat these guys in 2006 in Mississippi and should not be worried at home. Houston Nutt is not the savior Ole Miss fans think he is and he does not have Run DMC or Felix Jones to save his ass every week like they did last year when he coached at Arkansas. Wake plays solid D, efficient O and has the coaching advantage while playing at home. Throw in the fact that Ole Miss has lost 4 straight road openers and 13 of 14 and you know what we are cooking here. The ATS numbers:

Rebels are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games in September.
Rebels are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.

Demon Deacons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Demon Deacons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Demon Deacons are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Demon Deacons are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Demon Deacons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Demon Deacons are 13-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Demon Deacons go to 2-0 and although we would love to see this line under 7 we think a 10 point Wake win is not out of the question. Take Wake to win and cover!!!

West Virginia at East Carolina (+7.5) - This smells like a little bit of let down city to us. E. Carolina is coming off an emotional upset of Va. Tech and now has to come right back to face Pat White and West Virginia. Yes the same Pat White and West Virginia that beat their ass 48-7 last year. Check out the highlights if you want to predict this weekend.

West Virginia has beaten East Carolina seven straight times since 2000, outscoring them 278-103. Take a look at the ATS numbers:

Mountaineers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
Mountaineers are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games.

Pirates are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Pirates are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Pirates are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Pirates are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games in September.
Pirates are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
Pirates are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
Pirates are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games following a S.U. win.
Pirates are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big East.

That last one really sticks out to us. If the Pirates do not line up well against the Big East then they are going to have problems with White and Devine. Throw in the fact that the Mountaineers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings and we are loving West Virginia. Pat White, our dark horse Heisman candidate, is going to roll in this game. Take West Virginia to win and cover.

Minnesota at Bowling Green (-5.5) - We love this game. Bowling Green coming home after an awesome win at Pitt to face one of the bottom dwellers of the Big 10. We do not think the MAC is so far off talent wise compared to the Big Ten and this game will prove it. Minnesota barely beat MAC bottom dweller Northern Illinois at home and did not cover last week.

The ATS trends:

Golden Gophers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
Golden Gophers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.

Falcons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

Bowling Green is going to be jacked up at home and will defend their home field. Take Bowling Green for an easy win and cover!!!

Miami at Florida (-22.5) - This is going to be a fun game. 8PM, prime time, Tebow's first game versus "The U" and the Gators trying to end a 23 year winless streak. It is hard to believe all of that is true but the facts are the facts. Florida is still tough to read because Coach Meyer wants us all to believe he is going to protect Tebow from the pounding he faced last year but in reality the only way they are going to win games is if Tebow is Tebow. And that Tebow loves to hold and cuddle big men. See for yourself.

The Gators will live and die with Tebow. The U is working towards regaining some of its lost luster and potentially has the speed on defense to keep this game in check. Also, they have Robert Marve, from the state of Florida and the QB who broke a lot of Tebow's records. This is a brutal place to start your first game but Marve has the talent. The Florida schools have a certain rivalry and bragging rights and The U lives by this creed. 22.5 points is a lot to cover in a state game of this magnitude. The ATS numbers:

Hurricanes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Hurricanes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
Hurricanes are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Hurricanes are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
Hurricanes are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in September.
Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Hurricanes are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win.

Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Gators are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Gators are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.

We think this is a tough one to peg but think The U is a team on the rise and 22.5 points is too many to give. We do not think The U has a chance of winning but if the final score is 45-24, which is a blowout, guess what, The U covered for you. Take Miami to cover!!!

UL Monroe at Arkansas (-13) - Arkansas did not look good last week versus Western Illinois and actually had to rally from a 24-14 4th quarter deficit to get on track and win 28-24. UL Monroe got shutout by Auburn and showed absolutely nothing. Bobby Petrino will likely face some growing pains this season but they are not going to come against UL-Monroe. Petrino is one of the best play callers in football. The UL-Monroe Warhawks will be overmatched in this game and they have already shown that they vanish on the road in SEC stadiums. The ATS numbers:

Warhawks are 14-31 ATS in their last 45 non-conference games.
Warhawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Razorbacks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Razorbacks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Razorbacks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Razorbacks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in September.

Also, and most importantly, Arkansas' cheerleaders have great porno first names. Check this out:

Jenna and Kacey with a "K" and a "C". I see the tag team action right now. And with a QB named Casey Dick. I can see the porno headline right now....."Jenna and Kacey love Casey's Dick" We could go on for hours with this. "Casey's Dick deep inside Jenna and Kacey" Alright you get the point. Those ATS numbers for Arkansas were all under Houston "likes to suck" Nutt so we are not concerned. Arkansas will roll easily in this game so take them to cover!!!

Flash Flash picks (2-0 on the season)
Only one pick from me this week......Texas will thrash UTEP. UTEP gets thrashed by Buffalo, not the Buffalo Bills, but U of B. What a joke. Texas squashes UTEP big. You heard it here first.

Runny Pelvis Picks (1-1 after Week 1, 1-2 on the Season, damn Gamecocks, they probably got ahold of Casey's Dick too!)

Navy @ Ball State (-6.5): I love the MAC and I love the Testicular Ones to win it this year. They are stacked at QB, they have outstanding wideouts and Dave Letterman is an alumn. I like Navy, too, just not in this game. Losing Coach Johnson will be a big deal. I'm taking Ball State at home -6.5.

Akron @ CUSE (-4.5): Normally CUSE giving any amount of points to any team is begging you to go against them. They are bad and their coach will be gone by the end of the year. Couple that with the fact that Akron is not a bad team and could win the MAC this year and it is a recipe to take Akron and run. I don't buy it. CUSE is 10-1-1 in their last 12 against the MAC. I love them in The Dome. Take CUSE -4.5.

Stanford @ ASU (-14): Stanford surprised us with their win last week against Oregon State. Very surprising. Jim Harbaugh has a good idea of where he is taking this program and he is a good coach. However, ASU is just too stacked. Rudy Carpenter is legit and plays with a lot of heart. ASU just has too much ammo for the Cardinals. Also, the home team is 6-2 ATS in their last 8. Take ASU -14.

S.Miss +17.5 @ Auburn: Call me crazy, because on paper Auburn should destroy S.Miss. But, that's why they play the games!!! S. Miss is up-and-coming and their new coach, Larry Fedora, knows how to run an offense. They will catch Auburn sleeping. Plus, S. Miss is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 match-ups with Auburn. Take S. Miss +17.5.

Keep the emails coming at rpjsyndicate@gmail.com and hit us up on this blog in our comment section. We are here to help and make everybody money and stare at Keyra Augustina's delightful ass.

Flash Flash and Runny

Buckacre — Country Rock from America’s Heartland

Jeffrey — Fri, 05 Sep 2008 10:40:36 +0000

While surfing the Internet and You Tube yesterday I stumbled across a video for the group Buckacre, a band from the Illinois Valley (an area 90 miles southwest of Chicago along The Illinois River) that was popular in the mid and late 1970s.

When I was a junior and senior at LaSalle-Peru Township High School 1974-1976 most of the kids hip to the local music scene were raving about this band called Buckacre.

A country rock band, Buckacre’s music was a cross between Poco and Buffalo Springfield with a bit of the Eagles and maybe a hint of The James Gang thrown in for good measure. From the way a lot of people were talking and raving about this band, including my best friend Chris Vasquez, they were going places—literally, because in 1976 they went to London to record the first of two albums for MCA with legendary producer Glyn Johns (he worked with bands from The Beatles and The Who to the Eagles and The Steve Miller Band).

Touted as the next Eagles, following the release of Morning Comes, the band returned to the States and began to tour in the southeast opening for such acts as The Outlaws and Jimmy Buffet and for awhile was the back up band for Hee Haw’s the Hager Brothers when the twin brothers performed concerts.

By the end of the 70s, the band like many bands had their differences about their musical direction and while on the road, the band split up.

In the fall of 1980, I met two former members of Buckacre—Dick Verucchi and Alan Thacker—who had formed The Jerks along with Dave Morgan (he had played bass for Buckacre right before the band broke up) and Al Schupp. A few months later I was roadying for the band and would continue to do so up until 1982. (Interestingly, their equipment truck had once belonged to The Outlaws.)

Other members of Buckacre, Les Lockridge and Dick Hally also returned to the Illinois Valley and formed their band Longshot. I always found it interesting and perhaps a little ironic that on more than one occasion when both bands were playing on Water Street at Friday’s Saloon and Murphy’s Tap on the same night, some of the guys would walk to the other bar, when the band was on break, and listen to the other band play.

I have to confess that I never really gave Buckacre a listen to until years later, when one day, in 1988 while I was browsing in a used record store in Burlington, Iowa I came across their two albums. I was too busy listening to other music at the time and you know how that goes—sometimes you just don’t listen to the music. I only have one track now “Love Never Lasts Forever” that gets a lot of playing time on my iPod. Sadly, it is the only track available on CD that can be found on Crossing Paths—music from the Illinois Valley. I highly recommend this CD.

In 1982, Dick Verucchi and I were sitting in his van outside Murphy’s Bar on Water Street in Peru, Illinois (it is no longer there; now it is the Waterfront Saloon) listening to this new group called The Blasters—who’s music could best be described as a blend of rockabilly, rock, punk rock and rhythm and blues.

“This could have been us Sparks,” Dick said as we listened to one of the songs. “Had we stayed together as Buckacre this might have been the music we could have been playing.”

Dick Verucchi is still “playing out” in the Illinois Valley in the band Wake The Sheep; Dick Hally and Al Schupp are also playing music with local bands.

Maybe it’s only another rock and roll story about a band briefly tasting fame and so close to breaking out, but it’s a little personal for me having known some of the band members and having worked for them.